Rethinking Strategy: Futures, Not Future

Addressing uncertainty in strategy

This is the second article in a series on rethinking strategy. The first gave a series overview and covered who creates strategy. Now we’ll address uncertainty in strategy.

Strategy provides direction to move us forward, but what does the path ahead look like? Well, there’s actually more than one path. In fact, there are lots of possibilities that could play out and we don’t have enough information beforehand to know exactly which way things will go.

If we lock into one course, we may miss opportunities and expose ourselves to risk when something else happens. When we turn strategy into more of a plan, with detailed actions and metrics, we further commit to one way and it becomes more difficult to adapt or even notice signals suggesting change is necessary.

On top of that, we’ve put work into the strategy. We own it. We sold it. That makes us want to see it through.

The future is under construction. We don’t have all the answers. There will be twists and turns. There’s no single future, but multiple dynamic possibilities. So why would you build a strategy for just one future?

Think about what the future might look like. Lay out the possibilities and scenarios for how they could develop. Think about how you could steer the trajectory, go with the flow, and position for whatever happens.

Plans supporting strategy are temporary. They’ll change as you learn more and conditions change. Strategy should be more enduring. It should recognize the unknown and turbulent waters ahead and provide a direction to navigate them.

As I said before, I don’t have all the answers here, but I do have plenty of questions. I hope this makes you think of a few yourself.